PENGARUH KURS RUPIAH DAN INFLASI TERHADAP NERACA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA 2014-2024

Fitriyah Ulfah, Suchaina Suchaina

Abstract


The phenomenon of exchange rate fluctuations and inflation that have continued to occur in the last decade has affected Indonesia's economic stability, especially in the foreign trade sector. This problem is important to study in order to find out how these two variables affect Indonesia's trade balance. This study aims to determine the effect of the rupiah exchange rate and inflation on Indonesia's trade balance for the period 2014–2024. The research method used is quantitative with multiple regression analysis, and hypothesis testing using the t-test and F-test. Secondary data were obtained from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), Bank Indonesia, and the Ministry of Trade. The results of the analysis show that partially the rupiah exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the trade balance, which means that the higher the exchange rate leads to a trade surplus. Meanwhile, inflation does not have a significant effect on the trade balance partially. Simultaneously, the rupiah exchange rate and inflation have a significant effect on the trade balance, which shows that both variables are together relevant in influencing prices and competitiveness in international trade. Therefore, simultaneous analysis of both is very important to understand the economic health of a country.

Keywords


Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation, Trade Balance, Indonesian Economy

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.31932/jpe.v10i2.4721

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